Association between calculated panel reactive antibody and waitlist outcomes in the 2018 heart allocation system

The impact of heart transplant (HT) waitlist candidate sensitization on waitlist outcomes in the US is unknown.

Adult waitlist outcomes in OPTN (October 2018-September 2022) by calculated panel reactive antibody (cPRA) were modeled to identify thresholds of clinical significance. The primary outcome was the rate of HT by cPRA category (low: 0-35, middle: >35-90, high: >90) assessed using multivariable competing risk analysis (compete: waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration). The secondary outcome was waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration.

The elevated cPRA categories were associated with lower rates of HT. Candidates in the middle (35-90) and high cPRA categories (>90) had an adjusted 24% lower rate (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.92) and 61% lower rate (HR 0.39 95% CI. 0.33-0.47) of HT than the lowest category, respectively. Waitlist candidates in the high cPRA category listed in the top acuity strata (Statuses 1, 2) had increased rates of delisting for death or deterioration compared to those in the low cPRA category (adjusted HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.5-5.5), however, elevated cPRA (middle, high) was not associated with an increased rate of death and delisting when the cohort was considered as a whole.

Elevated cPRA was associated with reduced rates of HT across all waitlist acuity tiers. Among HT waitlist candidates listed at the top acuity strata, the high cPRA category was associated with increased rates of delisting due to death or deterioration. Elevated cPRA may require consideration for critically ill candidates under continuous allocation.