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Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis
Asharp Godwin1, Craig McGill2, Andrew Ward3
1School of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand; Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jaffna, Ariviyal Nagar, Kilinochchi, Sri Lanka.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 2, 2023
Summary
Climate change significantly impacts carrot seed yield in New Zealand. Rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns during critical growth stages negatively affect production, highlighting the vulnerability of this important crop.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Agronomy
Background:
- New Zealand is a leading global producer of carrot seeds.
- Carrot seed production is highly sensitive to climatic conditions.
- Climate change poses a significant threat to crop yields.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the impact of temperature and precipitation on carrot seed yield.
- To analyze climate effects across critical growth stages: juvenile, vernalization, floral development, and flowering/seed development.
- To assess the vulnerability of carrot seed production to climate change.
Main Methods:
- Panel data analysis using cross-sectional data from 28 New Zealand locations (2005-2022).
- Fixed effect model employed after pre-diagnostic tests.
- Marginal effect analysis to quantify temperature and precipitation impacts.
Main Results:
- Significant variability in temperature and rainfall observed across growth phases.
- Highest rates of change: maximum temperature (vernalization), minimum temperature (floral development), and precipitation (juvenile phase).
- Minimum and maximum temperatures showed the highest marginal effects on seed yield, with specific impacts during vernalization and flowering/seed development stages.
Conclusions:
- Carrot seed production in New Zealand is vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
- Temperature fluctuations, particularly minimum and maximum, have a substantial impact on seed yield.
- Precipitation changes also influence yield, with a notable decrease associated with rainfall increments during flowering and seed development.
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