Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues

In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018.

Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects.

A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%.

Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.