Plant disease risk is modified by multiple global change drivers

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Plant Pathology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Plant diseases are influenced by host biodiversity, spatial structure, and abiotic conditions.
• Global change drivers like climate warming, habitat loss, and nitrogen deposition are rapidly altering these factors.
• These changes impact ecosystem nutrient dynamics and biodiversity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review examples of plant-pathogen associations.
• To demonstrate the increasing difficulty in understanding, modeling, and predicting plant disease dynamics.
• To highlight the role of global change drivers in altering plant-pathogen interactions.

Main Methods:

• Review of existing literature on plant-pathogen associations.
• Analysis of ecological and evolutionary mechanisms driving disease dynamics.
• Examination of direct and combined effects of global change drivers.

Main Results:

• Plant and pathogen populations and communities are undergoing extensive change.
• Direct and combined effects of global change drivers complicate disease prediction.
• Feedback loops between plants and pathogens influence disease risk through ecological and evolutionary pathways.
• Many examples show an increase in disease risk.

Conclusions:

• Global environmental change is making plant disease prediction more challenging.
• Plant disease risk is increasing due to ongoing environmental changes.
• Failure to mitigate global environmental change will lead to severe consequences for food security and ecosystem functioning.