Long-term marine protection enhances kelp forest ecosystem stability

Trophic downgrading destabilizes ecosystems and can drive large-scale shifts in ecosystem state. While restoring predatory interactions in marine reserves can reverse anthropogenic-driven shifts, empirical evidence of increased ecosystem stability and persistence in the presence of predators is scant. We compared temporal variation in rocky reef ecosystem state in New Zealand's oldest marine reserve to nearby fished reefs to examine whether protection of predators led to more persistent and stable reef ecosystem states in the marine reserve. Contrasting ecosystem states were found between reserve and fished sites, and this persisted over the 22-year study period. Fished sites were predominantly urchin barrens but occasionally fluctuated to short-lived turfs and mixed algal forests, while reserve sites displayed unidirectional successional trajectories toward stable kelp forests (Ecklonia radiata) taking up to three decades following protection. This provides empirical evidence that long-term protection of predators facilitates kelp forest recovery, resists shifts to denuded alternate states, and enhances kelp forest stability.