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Modelling performance by continents in swimming
I Yustres Amores1, J Santos Del Cerro2, F González-Mohíno3,4
1Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain.
Frontiers in Physiology
|June 8, 2023
Summary
Early specialization in swimming, defined as participating in junior World Championships before senior events, leads to better performance times in senior World Championships across most continents. This suggests early talent development is crucial for international swimming success, with an exception noted in the Americas.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Talent Identification
- Swimming Performance Analysis
Background:
- Growing interest in predicting talented athletes' performance in international events.
- Talent identification programs aim to select and develop sports talent.
- Limited research on swimming World Championships success influenced by continent and early specialization.
Purpose of the Study:
- Analyze the effect of early specialization on swimming performance progression.
- Compare performance models of countries grouped by continents.
- Investigate the influence of early specialization on World Championships outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from Junior and Senior World Championships (2006-2017) via the International Swimming Federation (FINA).
- Employed one-way ANOVA, ANCOVA, and regression models.
- Examined the impact of category (junior vs. senior), age, best z-score, experience, and continent on performance.
Main Results:
- Significant differences (p < 0.01) in performance between junior and senior categories, with junior participants showing better times, except in America.
- ANCOVA revealed performance differences were greatest at younger ages, favoring the junior category across all continents.
- Athlete experience was identified as a significant factor in overall performance.
Conclusions:
- Swimmers with prior junior World Championships experience achieved better senior World Championships performance than those entering directly.
- Early specialization is a key factor for improved senior World Championships results globally, with the exception of the Americas.
- Findings highlight the importance of structured junior development pathways for elite swimming success.
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