Prognostic Value of ctDNA Detection in Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is increasingly used as a biomarker for metastatic rectal cancer and has recently shown promising results in the early detection of recurrence risk.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the prognostic value of ctDNA detection in LARC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). We systematically searched electronic databases for observational or interventional studies that included LARC patients undergoing nCRT. Study selection according to the PRISMA guidelines and quality assessment of the REMARK tool for biomarker studies. The primary endpoint was the impact of ctDNA detection at different time points (baseline, post-nCRT, post-surgery) on relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoint was to study the association between ctDNA detection and pathological complete response(pCR) at different time points.

After further review and analysis of the 625 articles initially retrieved, we finally included 10 eligible studies. We found no significant correlation between ctDNA detection at baseline and long-term survival outcomes or the probability of achieving a pCR. However, the presence of ctDNA at post-nCRT was associated with worse RFS (HR = 9.16, 95% CI, 5.48-15.32), worse OS (HR = 8.49, 95% CI, 2.20-32.72), and worse pCR results (OR = 0.40, 95%CI, 0.18-0.89). The correlation between the presence of ctDNA at post-surgery and worse RFS was more obvious (HR = 14.94; 95% CI, 7.48-9.83).

Our results suggest that ctDNA detection is a promising biomarker for the evaluation of response and prognosis in LARC patients undergoing nCRT, which merits further evaluation in the following prospective trials.