Transitions in Metabolic Health and Onset Age of Cardiovascular Diseases

The cardiometabolic risk associated with metabolically healthy obesity remains the subject of debate. It is unclear whether changes in metabolically healthy obesity status affect premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Authors aimed to investigate the association of metabolically healthy obesity and its transition over time with incident CVD by age at onset.

In a community-based, prospective cohort study, 54,441 adults without CVD in or before 2010 were followed for incident CVD until 2020. This sample was analyzed in 2022. Four age groups were examined (<55, 55-65, 65-75, and ≥75 years) for CVD onset. In each age group, participants were cross-classified by BMI categories and metabolic health. The Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying time scale was used to examine the associations of metabolic health status and its transition with CVD across BMI categories.

During a median follow-up of 9.59 years, 3,038 participants developed CVD. Individuals with metabolically unhealthy obesity at baseline had the highest hazard ratio for CVD onset at any age, ranging from 2.68 (95% CI=2.02, 3.55) for CVD onset in those aged <55 years to 1.55 (95% CI=1.09, 2.10) for CVD onset in those aged ≥75 years. Individuals who had metabolically healthy obesity at baseline or even remained metabolically healthy during 2006-2010 were still at increased risk of premature CVD, and the association attenuated with increasing age of CVD onset.

The metabolically healthy obesity phenotype is dynamic and its transition to a metabolically unhealthy phenotype or even stable metabolically healthy obesity is associated with an increased risk of CVD. The associations were more evident for CVD onset at younger ages.