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Remote Laboratory Management: Respiratory Virus Diagnostics
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Epidemic Management via Imperfect Testing: A Multi-criterial Perspective.

Giuseppe Palma1, Damiano Caprioli2, Lorenzo Mari3

  • 1Institute of Nanotechnology, National Research Council, Campus Ecotekne, Via Monteroni, 73100, Lecce, LE, Italy.

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Diagnostic testing and isolation are key for epidemic control. This study models imperfect tests to find efficient strategies minimizing cases and isolation time, even with false results.

Keywords:
Compartmental modelMisdiagnosisPareto efficiencyReproduction number

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Diagnostic testing and isolation are crucial for epidemic containment, but imperfect test accuracy (false positives/negatives) complicates their use.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted challenges in balancing public health protection with socioeconomic impacts during large-scale outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the trade-offs between diagnostic testing and mandatory isolation for epidemic containment.
  • To develop an extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model incorporating population stratification by test results.
  • To identify efficient testing and isolation strategies balancing epidemic control objectives.

Main Methods:

  • Extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model.
  • Incorporation of population stratification based on diagnostic test outcomes (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative).
  • Multi-criterial framework to evaluate Pareto-efficient testing and isolation scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Careful assessment of testing and isolation protocols can contribute to epidemic containment, even with imperfect test accuracy.
  • The model demonstrates that optimized strategies can mitigate disease spread despite false negative and false positive results.
  • Pareto-efficient scenarios were identified to minimize case counts, reduce isolation duration, or achieve a balance between these objectives.

Conclusions:

  • Diagnostic testing and isolation, when strategically implemented, are effective tools for managing epidemic transmission.
  • Mathematical modeling provides a framework for optimizing public health interventions in the face of imperfect diagnostic capabilities.
  • The study offers insights into balancing public health goals and socioeconomic considerations during infectious disease outbreaks.