A prediction model for assessing hypoglycemia risk in critically ill patients with sepsis

Few studies have reported the risk factors or developed a risk predictive model of hypoglycemia patients with sepsis.

To develop a predictive model to assess the hypoglycemia risk in critically ill patients with sepsis.

For this retrospective study, we collected the data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV). All eligible patients from the MIMIC-III were randomly divided into the training set for development of predictive model and testing set for internal validation of the predictive model at a ratio of 8:2. Patients from the MIMIC-IV database were used as the external validation set. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of hypoglycemia. Univariate and multivariate logistic model was used to screen predictors. Adopted receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves to estimate the performance of the nomogram.

The median follow-up time was 5.13 (2.61-9.79) days. Diabetes, dyslipidemia, mean arterial pressure, anion gap, hematocrit, albumin, sequential organ failure assessment, vasopressors, mechanical ventilation and insulin were identified as the predictors for hypoglycemia risk in critically ill patients with sepsis. We constructed a nomogram for predicting hypoglycemia risk in critically ill patients with sepsis based on these predictors. An online individualized predictive tool: https://ghongyang.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/. The established nomogram had a good predictive ability by ROC and calibration curves in the training set, testing set and external validation cohort.

A predictive model of hypoglycemia risk was constructed, with a good ability in predicting the risk of hypoglycemia in critically ill patients with sepsis.