Toward future triage regulations: Investigating preferred allocation principles of the German public

When intensive care capacity is limited, triage may be required. Given that the German government started working on new triage legislation in 2022, the present study investigated the German public's preferences for intensive care allocation in two situations: ex-ante triage (where multiple patients compete for available resources) and ex-post triage (where admitting a new patient to intensive care means withdrawing treatment from another because ICU resources are depleted).

In an online experiment, N=994 participants were presented with four fictitious patients who differed in age and pre- and post-treatment chance of survival. In a series of pairwise comparisons, participants were asked to select one patient for treatment or to opt for random selection. Ex-ante and ex-post triage situations were varied between participants and preferred allocation strategies were inferred from their decisions.

On average, participants prioritized better post-treatment prognosis ahead of younger age or treatment benefit. Many participants rejected random allocation (on the flip of a coin) or prioritization by worse pre-treatment prognosis. Preferences were similar for ex-ante and ex-post situations.

Although there may be good reasons for deviating from laypeople's preference for utilitarian allocation, the results can help to design future triage policies and accompanying communication strategies.