Breast cancer missed at screening; hindsight or mistakes?

To investigate radiologists' interpretation scores of screening mammograms prior to diagnosis of screen-detected and interval breast cancers retrospectively classified as missed or true negative.

We included data on radiologists' interpretation scores at screening prior to diagnosis for 1223 screen-detected and 1007 interval cancer cases classified as missed or true negative in an informed consensus-based review. All prior screening examinations were independently scored 1-5 by two radiologists; score 1 by both was considered concordant negative, score ≥ 2 by one radiologist discordant, and score ≥ 2 by both concordant positive. We analyzed associations between interpretation, review categories, mammographic features and histopathological findings using descriptive statistics and logistic regression.

Among screen-detected cancers, 31% of missed and 10% of true negative cancers had discordant or concordant positive interpretation at prior screening. The corresponding percentages for interval cancer were 21% and 8%. Age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for missed screen-detected cancer was 3.8 (95% CI: 2.6-5.4) after discordant and 5.5 (95% CI: 3.2-9.5) after concordant positive interpretation, using concordant negative as reference. Corresponding ORs for missed interval cancer were 3.0 (95% CI: 2.0-4.5) for discordant and 6.3 (95% CI: 2.3-17.5) for concordant positive interpretation. Asymmetry was the dominating mammographic feature at prior screening for all, except concordant positive screen-detected cancers where a mass dominated. Histopathological characteristics did not vary statistically with interpretation.

Most cancers were interpreted negatively at screening prior to diagnosis. Increased risk for missed screen-detected or interval cancer was observed after positive interpretation at prior screening.