A pairwise immune gene model for predicting overall survival and stratifying subtypes of colon adenocarcinoma

There is increasing evidence for a close correlation between risk stratification, prognosis and the immune environment in colon adenocarcinoma (COAD). However, the efficacy of immunotherapy is different among different patients with COAD. Therefore, the current work tends to use immune-related gene to develop a gene-pair model to evaluate the COAD prognosis, and to develop a new method for risk stratification of COAD, which is conducive to better predict the immunotherapy effect of patients.

Specifically, from the TCGA and GEO (GSE14333 and GSE39582) databases, we first collected gene expression profiles, associated survival follow-up information of COAD patients. Through systematic bioinformatics analysis, we established a prognosis-related model of colon cancer with three pairs of "immune gene pairs", with uni- and multivariate and lasso cox regression analyses verifying the model stability. Most immune cells showed markedly different levels of infiltration between the two risk subgroups calculated by the model. More, single-cell RNA-seq analyses were also performed to validate the selected genes in the immune gene-pair model.

A prognosis-related model of colon cancer with three pairs of "immune gene pairs" were built and validated by several datasets. The analysis of immune landscape of COAD revealed that low-risk subgroup obtained by the prognosis-related model for COAD can be further divided into three subclusters with different prognosis. Then, we applied the Tumor online Prognostic analyses Platform (ToPP) to construct a prognostic model using these five genes. Results show that APOD, ISG20 and STC2 are risk factors, while CXCL9 and IL7R are protection factors. We also found that only the five-gene model could also predict the prognosis of COAD patients, indicating the robustness of the gene-pair model. Among the five genes, including CXCL9, APOD, STC2, ISG20, and IL7R, in the gene-pair model, single-cell RNA sequencing reveals the high expression of CXCL9 and IL7R in inflammatory macrophages. Using cell-cell interaction and trajectory analysis, data indicate that CXCL9⁺/IL7R⁺ pro-inflammatory macrophages were capable of secreting and activating more anti-tumor pathways than CXCL9^-/IL7R^- pro-inflammatory macrophages.

In short, we have successfully developed an "immune gene pair" related model that can judge the prognostic status of patients with COAD and may contribute to risk stratification and evaluate potential beneficiaries of immunotherapy, providing new ideas for the anti-COAD management and therapy.