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Model selection for component network meta-analysis in connected and disconnected networks: a simulation study.

Maria Petropoulou1, Gerta Rücker1, Stephanie Weibel2

  • 1Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Stefan-Meier-Straße 26, 79104, Freiburg, Germany.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Component network meta-analysis (CNMA) can effectively analyze interventions in connected networks. However, its use in disconnected networks is questionable, especially without strong evidence for additive component effects.

Keywords:
Component network meta-analysisDisconnected networksModel selectionMulticomponent interventionsSimulation

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Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Clinical Epidemiology
  • Health Services Research

Background:

  • Network meta-analysis (NMA) estimates and ranks intervention effects.
  • Component network meta-analysis (CNMA) extends NMA by analyzing individual components of multicomponent interventions.
  • CNMA can reconnect disconnected networks using common components and allows relaxing additivity assumptions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate a forward model selection strategy for CNMA to relax additivity assumptions in connected and disconnected networks.
  • To describe a procedure for creating disconnected networks to assess model selection properties.
  • To apply and compare CNMA methods using simulated data and a real-world clinical review.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a forward model selection strategy for CNMA.
  • Developed a procedure to generate disconnected networks for evaluation.
  • Applied methods to simulated data and a Cochrane review on postoperative nausea and vomiting interventions.
  • Assessed model performance using average mean squared errors and coverage probabilities.

Main Results:

  • CNMA models demonstrated good performance in connected networks, serving as an alternative to standard NMA when additivity is appropriate.
  • For disconnected networks, the additive CNMA is recommended only when strong clinical evidence supports additivity.
  • Model selection strategies were evaluated for their effectiveness in various network structures.

Conclusions:

  • Component network meta-analysis (CNMA) is a feasible method for connected networks.
  • The application of CNMA in disconnected networks requires careful consideration and is generally questionable.
  • Additive CNMA in disconnected networks should only be used with robust clinical justification.