A continuous-time Markov chain model of fibrosis progression in NAFLD and NASH

The specific pathways, timescales, and dynamics driving the progression of fibrosis in NAFLD and NASH are not yet fully understood. Hence, a mechanistic model of the pathogenesis and treatment of fibrosis in NASH will necessarily have significant uncertainties. The rate of fibrosis progression and the heterogeneity of pathogenesis across patients are not thoroughly quantified. To address this problem, we have developed a continuous-time Markov chain model that is able to capture the heterogeneity of fibrosis progression observed in the clinic. We estimated the average time of disease progression through various stages of fibrosis using seven published clinical studies involving paired liver biopsies. Sensitivity analysis revealed therapeutic intervention at stage F1 or stage F2 results in greatest potential improvement in the average fibrosis scores for a typical patient cohort distribution. These results were in good agreement with a retrospective analysis of placebo-controlled pioglitazone clinical trials for the treatment of NAFLD and NASH. This model provides support for determining patient populations, duration, and potential successful endpoints for clinical trial design in the area of NAFLD and NASH.