Vaginal temperature modeling in Holstein cows and cluster analysis by the cophenetic correlation coefficient

The objective was to establish a model for the prediction and characterization of vaginal temperature in Holstein cows, based on environmental predictors and thermal comfort indices, through cluster analysis, validation by the cophenetic correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis. The micrometeorological characterization of the site was carried out by recording the air temperature (T_air), the relative humidity (RH), the black globe temperature (BGT), the black globe temperature and humidity (BGHI), and dew point temperature (TDP). The recording of vaginal temperature (Tv) was performed in eight dairy cows using temperature sensors, equipped with data loggers, coupled with intravaginal devices. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and cluster analysis (CA) by using the hierarchical agglomerative method based on the value of the cophenetic correlation coefficient (CCC >0.70), in which representative physiological models were established, characterizing the Tv through multiple regression. In the afternoon the coefficient of variation (CV) was low for all variables, indicating homogeneity of the meteorological variables and efficiency of the ventilation system. The temperature and humidity index (THI) was mild only on the morning. There was a variation of 0.28 °C of Tv between shifts, sufficient to characterize the condition of comfort and stress of the animal, with values above 39 °C indicating animal stress. Tv showed strong correlation with BGT, T_air, TDP and RH, assuming that physiological variables, such as Tv, tend to have greater relationship with abiotic variables. Empirical models were established for estimating Tv based on the analyses performed in this study. Model 1 is recommended for TDP ranges of 14.00-21.00 °C and RH of 30-100%, while model 2 can be used for T_air situations up to 35 °C. The regression models for estimating Tv are promising for characterizing the thermal comfort of dairy cows housed in compost barn systems.