Evolutionary rescue via niche construction: Infrequent construction can prevent post-invasion extinction

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Population genetics

Background:

• Habitat loss is a major driver of extinction.
• Evolutionary rescue, through genetic adaptation, offers a potential solution.
• Niche construction, where organisms modify their environment, can facilitate adaptation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analytically approximate the probability of evolutionary rescue via niche construction.
• To investigate the impact of niche construction on population dynamics and extinction risk.
• To identify conditions that influence the success of evolutionary rescue through niche construction.

Main Methods:

• Analytical approximation of evolutionary rescue probability.
• Modeling competition between niche-constructing mutants and wild types.
• Analysis of population dynamics under varying environmental conditions and population parameters.

Main Results:

• Niche construction can lead to damped oscillations in population size post-mutant invasion due to over-exploitation by wild types.
• This over-exploitation decreases the probability of evolutionary rescue.
• Post-invasion extinction is less likely when niche construction is infrequent, habitat loss is common, the environment is large, or carrying capacity is small.

Conclusions:

• Evolutionary rescue via niche construction can be undermined by wild type over-exploitation of constructed habitats.
• Populations may face short-term extinction risks even after successful mutant invasion without mechanisms to prevent wild type inheritance.
• Environmental factors and population characteristics significantly influence the success of niche-constructing evolutionary rescue.