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Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
Xiaolan Xie1,2, Mengmeng Hao1,2, Fangyu Ding1,2
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Objectives:
Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change.
Methodology:
Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020-2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors.
Findings:
The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk.
Conclusion:
COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change.
Implications:
Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.
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