Traumatic Brain Injury and Long-Term Risk of Stroke Among US Military Veterans

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with significant morbidity, but the association of TBI with long-term stroke risk in diverse populations remains less clear. Our objective was to examine the long-term associations of TBI with stroke and to investigate potential differences by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and time since TBI diagnosis.

Retrospective cohort study of US military veterans aged 18+ years receiving healthcare in the Veterans Health Administration system between October 1, 2002 and September 30, 2019. Veterans with TBI were matched 1:1 to veterans without TBI on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and index date, yielding 306 796 veterans with TBI and 306 796 veterans without TBI included in the study. In primary analyses, Fine-Gray proportional hazards models adjusted for sociodemographics and medical/psychiatric comorbidities were used to estimate the association between TBI and stroke risk, accounting for the competing risk of mortality.

Participants were a mean age of 50 years, 9% were female, and 25% were of non-White race and ethnicity. Overall, 4.7% of veterans developed a stroke over a median follow-up of 5.2 years. Veterans with TBI had 1.69 times (95% CI, 1.64-1.73) increased risk of any stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) compared to veterans without TBI. This increased risk was highest in the first-year post-TBI diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 2.16 [95% CI, 2.03-2.29]) but remained elevated for 10+ years. Similar patterns were observed for secondary outcomes, with associations of TBI with hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 3.92 [95% CI, 3.59-4.29]) being stronger than with ischemic stroke (HR, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.52-1.61]). Veterans with both mild (HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.43-1.52]) and moderate/severe/penetrating injury (HR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.96-2.09]) had increased risk of stroke compared to veterans without TBI. Associations of TBI with stroke were stronger among older compared to younger individuals (P interaction-by-age<0.001) and were weaker among Black veterans compared to other race and ethnicities (P interaction-by-race<0.001).

Veterans with prior TBI are at increased long-term risk for stroke, suggesting they may be an important population to target for primary stroke prevention measures.