Climate and human mortality in Virginia, 2005-2020.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Biometeorology
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Climate change necessitates understanding its impact on public health.
• Previous studies show varying climate-mortality relationships geographically.
• Virginia's diverse climate regions require localized analysis of these impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine climate-mortality relationships across 12 climatically distinct regions in Virginia.
• To model daily mortality linked to temperature, humidity, and extreme weather events.
• To compare region-specific models with a general consensus model for broader applicability.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an extensive database of Virginia resident deaths (2005-2020).
• Employed weather station data to derive biometeorological indices.
• Applied generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to analyze relationships over a 21-day lag period.

Main Results:

• Cold-related mortality risk is generally higher than heat-related risk across most of Virginia (RR 1.10 vs. 1.03).
• Cold mortality risks are most pronounced at 3-10 day lags, while heat mortality occurs at shorter lags (0-2 days).
• Significant regional variations in mortality risk were observed, with U-shaped, J-shaped, and inverse linear relationships evident.

Conclusions:

• Cold temperatures pose a more substantial mortality threat than heat across Virginia.
• Region-specific models are valuable, but a consensus model offers comparable insights for inter-regional comparisons.
• Findings highlight the need for tailored public health interventions based on regional climate vulnerabilities.