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Forecasting road accidental deaths in India: an explicit comparison between ARIMA and exponential smoothing method
Prafulla Kumar Swain1, Manas Ranjan Tripathy2, Khushi Agrawal1
1Department of Statistics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India.
Summary
Road accident deaths in India are rising. This study forecasts an upward trend from 2022-2031 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing, with ARIMA (2, 2, 2) identified as the best model.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Transportation Safety
- Data Science
Background:
- Road accident fatalities represent a growing global concern, significantly impacting India due to increasing motorization.
- Existing literature highlights the severity of road traffic injuries and fatalities in India.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the number of road accident deaths in India for the period 2022-2031.
- To compare the efficacy of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing methods for time series forecasting of road accident data.
- To identify the most suitable time series model for predicting future road accident fatalities in India.
Main Methods:
- Utilized time series analysis techniques: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing.
- Collected data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, India (2020) and Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India (ADSI) Report (2021).
- Evaluated and compared ARIMA (2, 2, 2) and exponential smoothing (M, A, N) models, selecting the best based on AIC and BIC values.
Main Results:
- Both ARIMA and exponential smoothing models showed consistent results, aligning with existing research.
- The ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model was identified as superior due to lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values.
- A significant upward trend in road accidental deaths is projected for India over the next decade.
Conclusions:
- The ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model provides a reliable method for forecasting road accident deaths in India.
- The study predicts a continued increase in road accident fatalities in India from 2022 to 2031.
- Comparative analysis of time series models offers valuable insights for road safety policy and intervention strategies.
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