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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 25, 2025

Author Spotlight: A Pseudotype Virus System for Assessing Omicron Subvariants and Neutralizing Antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 Research
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Endemic oscillations for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-A SIRS model analysis.

Florian Nill1

  • 1Department of Physics, Free University Berlin, Arnimallee 14, 14195 Berlin, Germany.

Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals
|June 23, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study reveals that continuous vaccination may not prevent endemic disease phases, as seen with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron. However, strong damping factors suggest real-world oscillations will be minimal.

Keywords:
34C2334C2637C2592D30Endemic bifurcationEndemic oscillationsSARS-Cov-2 OmicronSIRS model

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • The SIRS model with constant vaccination and immunity waning demonstrates a transition from disease-free to endemic states.
  • This transition is linked to the basic reproduction number exceeding a critical threshold.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To unify various endemic bifurcation models by mapping the SIRS model to Hethcote's classic endemic model.
  • To analyze the conditions leading to damped infection waves and endemic equilibria.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling using the SIRS framework.
  • Mapping the SIRS model to Hethcote's endemic model (1973).
  • Analysis of endemic bifurcation and trajectory dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Unifying formulas were derived for models exhibiting endemic bifurcation.
  • Specific conditions (vaccination rate < recovery rate, basic reproduction number within bounds) lead to damped infection waves spiraling into endemic equilibrium.
  • The model suggests continuous vaccination may not prevent oscillating endemic phases for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron.

Conclusions:

  • The SIRS model provides a unified framework for understanding endemic bifurcations.
  • While simplified models predict oscillating endemic phases for SARS-CoV-2, strong damping factors suggest these will be minimal in reality.
  • Time-dependent contact behaviors are likely to override predicted oscillations.