Stability of blood lead levels in children with low-level lead absorption

Current child blood lead (Pb) screening guidelines assume that blood lead levels (BLLs) are relatively stable over time, and that only youngest children are vulnerable to the damaging effects of lower-range BLLs. This study aimed to test the stability of lower-range (≤ 10 μg/dL) child BLLs over time, and whether lower-range BLLs diminished with age among children aged 6 months to 16 years living in a lower-income neighborhood with a density of pre-1986 housing and legacy contamination. Age, sex, family income, age of residence, and/or residence proximity to point sources of Pb, were tested as potential additional factors. Capillary blood samples from 193 children were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS). Multiple imputation was used to simulate missing data for 3 blood tests for each child. Integrated Growth Curve models with Test Wave as a random effect were used to test BLL variability over time. Among N = 193 children tested, at Time 1 testing, 8.7% had the BLLs ≥ 5 μg/dL (CDC "elevated" BLL reference value at the time of data collection) and 16.8% had BLLs ≥ 3.5 μg/dL (2021 CDC "elevated" BLL reference value). Modeling with time as a random effect showed that the variability of BLLs were attributable to changes within children. Moreover, time was not a significant predictor of child BLLs over 18 months. A sex by age interaction suggested that BLLs diminished with age only among males. Of the additional environmental factors tested, only proximity to a major source of industrial or vehicle exhaust pollution predicted child BLL variability, and was associated with a small, but significant BLL increase (0.22 μg/dL). These findings suggest that one or two BLL tests for only infants or toddlers are insufficient for identifying children with Pb poisoning.