Xylazine-involved fatal overdoses and localized geographic clustering: Cook County, IL, 2019-2022

Xylazine, a veterinary analgesic sedative, is circulating in the illicit drug markets of at least 23 states including Illinois. We conducted a geographic analysis to better identify the spatial distribution of xylazine-involved fatal overdoses in Cook County, IL.

Cook County Medical Examiner Office's (CCMEO) publicly available data was used to identify xylazine-involved fatal overdoses from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022. Xylazine-positive (cases) to xylazine-negative groups with drug mixtures involving fentanyl, alcohol and stimulants (controls) were matched on age, race, sex, and year of death. Ripley's K-function was used to examine the likelihood of case clustering compared to controls with the Bernoulli spatial scan deployed to identify specific geographic clusters.

Almost all (94.4%) xylazine-positive overdoses contained fentanyl. Using coordinate-based matching, we found that approximately 3% of xylazine overdose incidents were co-located with other overdoses. Xylazine cases clustered to from 0 to 16.1 miles (max=10.6 miles). Results of the Bernoulli spatial scan varied by control group with two high-risk clusters found relative to alcohol and stimulants and a low-risk cluster relative to fentanyl. Differences in co-occurring drugs were found between xylazine and fentanyl groups like the absolute number of drugs (4.6v 3.4, p<0.0001) and fentanyl analog types.

Xylazine fatal overdose incident locations exhibited localized clustering relative to fentanyl overdoses but clusters were not precisely detected at these scales. Even so, our results, especially relative to repeat overdose micro "hot spots", offer insight on targeting harm reduction and other services at the neighborhood-level.