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To profile or not?

Yael Deutsch1, Arieh Gavious2

  • 1Department of Management, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|June 23, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Passenger profiling at border crossings aids in identifying violators. While announced profiling benefits defenders most, both announced and unannounced profiling enhance overall social utility compared to no profiling.

Keywords:
counterterrorismgame theoryincomplete informationinspectionrisk analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Operations Research
  • Game Theory
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • Border security faces challenges in identifying violators among large passenger volumes.
  • Passenger profiling is a debated tool for enhancing inspection effectiveness.
  • Public concerns exist regarding the fairness and utility of profiling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the effectiveness of passenger profiling in border security.
  • To determine optimal strategies for implementing profiling to maximize effectiveness.
  • To analyze the impact of profiling on social utility.

Main Methods:

  • Development and analysis of two game-theoretic models simulating border crossing scenarios.
  • Inclusion of defender, attacker, and passenger roles with private information.
  • Comparison of profiling (announced and unannounced) with no-profiling policies, including a social planner's perspective.

Main Results:

  • Announced profiling policies yield the highest payoffs for the defender.
  • Passenger profiling consistently improves social utility compared to no profiling.
  • Unannounced profiling can, in certain scenarios, lead to the greatest social utility.

Conclusions:

  • Profiling is a valuable tool for improving border security efficiency and social utility.
  • Strategic implementation, considering announced vs. unannounced policies, is key to maximizing benefits.
  • Further research into optimal profiling strategies balancing security and social welfare is warranted.