Prediction of plasma trough concentration of voriconazole in adult patients using machine learning

Plasma trough concentration of voriconazole (VCZ) was associated with its toxicity and efficacy. However, the nonlinear pharmacokinetic characteristics of VCZ make it difficult to determine the relationship between clinical characteristics and its concentration. We intended to present a machine learning (ML)-based method to predict toxic plasma trough concentration of VCZ (>5 μg/mL).

A single center retrospective study was conducted. Three ML algorithms were used to estimate the concentration in adult patients, including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The importance of variables was recognized by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. In addition, an external validation set was used to validate the robustness of models.

A total of 1318 VCZ plasma concentration were included, with 33 variables enrolled in the model. Nine classification models were developed using the RF, GB, and XGBoost algorithms. Most models performed well for both the training set and test set, with an average balanced accuracy (BA) of 0.704 and an average accuracy (ACC) of 0.788. In addition, the average Matthews correlation coefficient value reached 0.484, which indicated the predicted values are meaningful. Based on the average BA and ACC values, the predictive ability of the models can be ranked from best to worst as follows: younger adult models > mixed models > elderly models, and XGBoost models > GBT models > RF models. The SHAP results showed that the top five influencing factors in younger adult patients (<60 years) were albumin, total bile acid (TBA), platelets count, age, and inflammation, while the top five influencing factors in elderly patients were albumin, TBA, aspartate aminotransferase, creatinine, and alanine aminotransferase. Furthermore, the prediction of external validation set for VCZ concentrations verified the high reliability of the models, for the ACC value of 0.822 by the best model.

The ML models can be reliable tools for predicting toxic concentration exposure of VCZ. The SHAP results may provide useful guidelines for dosage adjustment of VCZ.