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The COVID-19 state sales tax windfall.

Phil Dean¹, Maclean Gaulin¹, Nathan Seegert^1,2

¹University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA.

International Tax and Public Finance

|June 26, 2023

Summary

Sales tax revenues unexpectedly rose during the pandemic due to increased spending on taxable goods and e-commerce. This shift in consumption patterns offers insights into sales tax resilience and volatility for policymakers.

Keywords:

COVID-19 Online shopping Sales tax Tax revenue e-Commerce

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Area of Science:

Economics
Public Finance
Taxation

Background:

Sales tax revenues were anticipated to decline significantly in 2020.
Policymakers were surprised by the actual increase in sales tax collections.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the reasons behind the unexpected rise in sales tax revenues in 2020.
To provide insights into consumption taxes and revenue volatility using the pandemic experience.

Main Methods:

Case study analysis focusing on the State of Utah.
Examination of shifts in consumption structure and e-commerce trends.

Main Results:

Increased spending on goods within the sales tax base, as services were restricted.
A boom in e-commerce, facilitated by legal changes, boosted sales tax collections.
A geographical shift in sales tax revenue from urban to suburban areas due to e-commerce.

Conclusions:

Consumption tax bases and e-commerce dynamics significantly impact revenue stability.
The findings offer lessons for sales taxes and broader consumption taxes like the Value Added Tax (VAT).
Understanding these factors is crucial for managing tax revenue volatility.