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Using the Race Model Inequality to Quantify Behavioral Multisensory Integration Effects
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Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions.

David Arnold1, Will Dobbie2, Peter Hull3

  • 1University of California, San Diego.

The American Economic Review
|June 26, 2023
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New quasi-experimental tools reveal that disparate impact in bail decisions explains two-thirds of the racial disparity in pretrial release rates. This study identifies racial bias and statistical discrimination as key drivers.

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology and Criminal Justice
  • Quantitative Social Science
  • Public Policy Analysis

Background:

  • Pretrial release decisions significantly impact defendants' legal and personal outcomes.
  • Existing comparisons of pretrial release rates are often confounded by omitted variables bias.
  • Measuring disparate impact in bail decisions requires robust quasi-experimental methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply novel quasi-experimental tools for measuring disparate impact in bail decisions.
  • To quantify the contribution of disparate impact to racial disparities in pretrial release rates.
  • To investigate the underlying drivers of disparate impact, including racial bias and statistical discrimination.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized quasi-random assignment of judges to purge omitted variables bias in release rate comparisons.
  • Estimated average pretrial misconduct risk by race using instrumental variables.
  • Developed and applied a hierarchical marginal treatment effect model to analyze disparate impact drivers.

Main Results:

  • Two-thirds of the release rate disparity between white and Black defendants in New York City is attributable to disparate impact.
  • The study found evidence supporting both racial bias and statistical discrimination as factors contributing to disparate impact.
  • The developed quasi-experimental tools effectively isolate the impact of release decisions from other confounding factors.

Conclusions:

  • Disparate impact in bail decisions is a substantial driver of racial disparities in the pretrial justice system.
  • Quasi-experimental methods are crucial for accurately measuring and understanding disparate impact.
  • Addressing racial bias and statistical discrimination in bail decisions is essential for promoting equity.