Discovering maritime-piracy hotspots: a study based on AHP and spatio-temporal analysis

Area of Science:

• Maritime security
• Geospatial analysis
• Criminology

Background:

• Maritime piracy poses substantial risks to international trade, including cargo loss, economic disruption, and environmental damage.
• Existing research lacks comprehensive analysis of the factors and spatial patterns influencing pirate attack locations.
• Understanding these patterns is crucial for developing effective anti-piracy measures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the primary areas of maritime piracy occurrence.
• To analyze the underlying causes and spatio-temporal patterns influencing pirate attack choices.
• To contribute to the literature on maritime piracy and inform security strategies.

Main Methods:

• Applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for factor analysis.
• Utilized spatio-temporal analysis techniques.
• Employed data from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

Main Results:

• Pirates predominantly target ships in territorial waters, closer to coastlines and less frequently near ports or in international waters.
• Spatio-temporal analysis indicates a preference for coastlines of politically unstable, impoverished nations, with the exception of the Arabian Sea.
• Pirate activity is influenced by information sharing among pirate networks, suggesting intelligence gathering from arrested pirates as a countermeasure.

Conclusions:

• The study enhances understanding of maritime piracy hotspots and their drivers.
• Findings can inform the development of targeted defense strategies for high-risk maritime areas.
• Addressing factors like political instability and poverty may mitigate piracy risks.