An innovative approach for predicting pandemic hotspots in complex wastewater networks using graph theory coupled...

Early prediction of COVID-19 infected communities (potential hotspots) is essential to limit the spread of virus. Diagnostic testing has limitations in big populations because it cannot deliver information at a fast enough rate to stop the spread in its early phases. Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) experiments showed promising results for brisk detection of 'SARS CoV-2' RNA in urban wastewater. However, a systematic and targeted approach to track COVID-19 virus in the complex wastewater networks at a community level is lacking. This research combines graph network (GN) theory with fuzzy logic to determine the chances of a specific community being a COVID-19 hotspot in a wastewater network. To detect 'SARS-CoV-2' RNA, GN divides wastewater network into communities and fuzzy logic-based inference system is used to identify targeted communities. For the propose of tracking, 4000 sample cases from Minnesota (USA) were tested based on various contributing factors. With a probability score of greater than 0.8, 42% of cases were likely to be designated as COVID-19 hotspots based on multiple demographic characteristics. The research enhances the conventional WBE approach through two novel aspects, viz. (1) by integrating graph theory with fuzzy logic for quick prediction of potential hotspot along with its likelihood percentage in a wastewater network, and (2) incorporating the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 contributing factors using fuzzy membership functions. The targeted approach allows for rapid testing and implementation of vaccination campaigns in potential hotspots. Consequently, governmental bodies can be well prepared to check future pandemics and variant spreading in a more planned manner.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-023-02468-3.