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Prediction of in-hospital mortality rate in COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus using machine learning methods

Pooneh Khodabakhsh1, Ali Asadnia2, Alieyeh Sarabandi Moghaddam3

  • 1Department of IT and Computer Engineering, Azad Islamic University South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran.

Journal of Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders
|June 26, 2023
PubMed

Insights

COVID-19 significantly impacts diabetic patients. This study identified age (51-80), CPR, and ICU stay as key factors influencing the discharge status of hospitalized diabetic COVID-19 patients.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Informatics
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global health crisis, with millions infected and deceased worldwide.
  • Identifying and predicting COVID-19 outcomes is a critical healthcare priority.
  • Diabetic patients represent a significant at-risk population for adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze COVID-19 patient data, focusing on those with diabetes.
  • To identify key factors influencing the clinical course and discharge status of diabetic COVID-19 patients.
  • To develop a predictive model for patient release status using a decision tree algorithm.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a dataset of 29,817 COVID-19 patients hospitalized between October 2019 and March 2021.
  • Focused analysis on 2,824 diabetic COVID-19 patients.
  • Employed a decision tree algorithm for data analysis, association rule mining, and prediction of patient release status.

Main Results:

  • The decision tree model achieved 87.07% accuracy, 88% sensitivity, and 80% specificity in predicting patient release status.
  • Association rules were mined to understand patient characteristics and outcomes.
  • Identified age category (51-80), CPR, and ICU residency as pivotal factors in discharge status for diabetic inpatients.

Conclusions:

  • Diabetic patients constitute the largest group of at-risk individuals among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
  • Age, CPR, and ICU residency are crucial determinants for the discharge status of diabetic COVID-19 inpatients.
  • The study highlights the importance of considering these factors in managing diabetic patients with COVID-19.
Abstract

Keywords:
CoronavirusDecision Tree ClassifierDiabetic patientsEpidemiology Research

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