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Pandemics erode poverty alleviation process: Impact on productive livelihood and poverty return
Bo Wang1,2, Han Shi1,2, Zhaohua Wang1,2
1School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Iscience
|June 27, 2023
Summary
Pandemics like COVID-19 disrupt rural livelihoods, pushing households back into poverty. Our study shows significant drops in productive activities, with over 5% at risk of returning to poverty.
Area of Science:
- Socioeconomics
- Development Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- Pandemics, exemplified by COVID-19, pose significant threats to economic stability and poverty alleviation efforts.
- Households that have recently escaped poverty are particularly vulnerable to income shocks caused by global health crises.
- Rural livelihoods are often disproportionately affected due to their reliance on productive activities susceptible to disruption.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural household productive livelihood activities.
- To quantify the extent to which pandemic disruptions threaten income growth and poverty alleviation gains.
- To identify vulnerable household characteristics that exacerbate the negative effects of pandemics.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 48 months of household production electricity consumption data.
- Comparison of productive activity levels before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Estimation of income decline and potential poverty relapse rates.
Main Results:
- Productive livelihood activities of 51.11% of recently poverty-alleviated households returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- Average decline in productive activities was 21.81% during the national epidemic and 40.57% during regional outbreaks.
- Households with lower income, education, and fewer laborers experienced more severe impacts.
- An estimated 3.74% income decline was linked to reduced productive activities.
- A potential 5.41% of households face the risk of falling back into poverty.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted rural productive livelihoods, threatening poverty alleviation gains.
- Vulnerable populations, including low-income and less educated households, bear a disproportionate burden.
- Findings offer critical insights for developing targeted interventions to prevent pandemic-induced poverty relapse in at-risk countries.
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