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Prediction of the Prevalence of Hypertension and Associated Risk Factors in Rwanda Using Gibbs Sampling Method.

Angélique Dukunde1, Jean Marie Ntaganda2, Juma Kasozi3

  • 1African Center of Excellence in Data Science-Biostatistics, College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, Kigali P.O. Box 4285, Rwanda.

Diseases (Basel, Switzerland)
|June 27, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Hypertension prevalence in Rwanda is projected to increase to 17.82% by 2025. Key risk factors include tobacco use and obesity, necessitating urgent public health interventions for hypertension prevention.

Keywords:
Gibbs sampling methodMarkov Chain Monte Carlohypertensionnon-communicable diseaseprediction

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Hypertension prevalence in Rwanda was 15.3% in 2015.
  • Accurate predictions for hypertension trends in Rwanda are lacking.
  • This hinders effective public health planning and intervention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the future prevalence of hypertension in Rwanda.
  • To identify associated risk factors for hypertension.
  • To inform prevention and intervention strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Gibbs sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
  • Employed data from World Health Organization (WHO) reports.
  • Projected hypertension prevalence over a ten-year period.

Main Results:

  • Hypertension prevalence is predicted to reach 17.82% by 2025.
  • Prevalence of key risk factors: tobacco use (26.26%), overweight/obesity (17.13%), other factors (33.99%).
  • Indicated an increasing trend in hypertension and associated risk factors.

Conclusions:

  • Urgent preventive measures are required to combat rising hypertension rates.
  • Promoting balanced diets and physical activity is crucial.
  • Government intervention is recommended to reduce the disease burden.