Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates and Public Measures on Case Rates at the Provincial Level, Thailand, 2021:...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Vaccinology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant global morbidity and mortality.
• COVID-19 vaccines were anticipated to be crucial in managing the pandemic.

Purpose of the Study:

• To characterize COVID-19 cases and vaccination patterns in Thailand during 2021.
• To assess the association between COVID-19 vaccination and case rates, considering ecological-level confounders and time lags.

Main Methods:

• A spatial panel model for bivariate data was employed.
• Ecological-level factors including color zones, curfews, tourism, and migrant movements were analyzed.
• Time lags of two, four, six, and eight weeks post-vaccination were considered, with two-week lags used in multivariate analyses.

Main Results:

• Thailand recorded 1,965,023 cumulative COVID-19 cases and administered 45,788,315 first vaccine doses (63.60%) in 2021.
• Individuals aged 31-45 years exhibited high rates for both cases and vaccinations.
• Vaccination rates showed a slight positive association with case rates, potentially due to initial vaccine allocation in high-incidence areas.

Conclusions:

• Migrant populations and provincial color zones were positively associated with case rates, while tourism showed a negative association.
• Recommendations include prioritizing vaccination for migrants and fostering collaboration between tourism and public health sectors for future preparedness.