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Predicting Carcass Weight of Grass-Fed Beef Cattle before Slaughter Using Statistical Modelling.

Kalpani Ishara Duwalage1, Moe Thandar Wynn1, Kerrie Mengersen1

  • 1Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia.

Animals : an Open Access Journal From MDPI
|June 28, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Predicting beef carcass weight using farm data improves profitability. Statistical models accurately forecast carcass weight up to three months before slaughter, aiding farm management decisions.

Keywords:
body weightcarcass weightgrass-fed beef cattlepredictionregressionweaning

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Animal Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Farm-level data utilization is crucial for enhancing decision-making, production, and profitability in the beef industry.
  • Accurate prediction of carcass weight (CW) is essential for effective farm management and market readiness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate statistical models for predicting the carcass weight (CW) of grass-fed beef cattle at various pre-slaughter stages.
  • To assess the accuracy of these predictions using historical cattle data from Northern Australia.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized boosted regression trees and multiple linear regression to model CW.
  • Employed data from 2995 grass-fed cattle across three properties, considering four pre-slaughter time points (1 month, 3 months, 9-10 months, weaning).
  • Included seven predictors: weaning weight, weight gain, time since weaning, breed, sex, weaning season, and property.

Main Results:

  • Carcass weight showed a strong association with animal body weight at all pre-slaughter stages.
  • Achieved a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% (~12-16 kg) for predictions made three months before slaughter.
  • Prediction error increased with earlier time points, reaching ~8% (~20-25 kg) at weaning.

Conclusions:

  • Statistical models can reliably predict beef carcass weight in advance of slaughter.
  • Early CW prediction enables farmers to optimize husbandry practices, inventory control, and financial planning.
  • Improved forecasting capabilities contribute to maximizing profitability within the beef industry.