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PICTUREE-Aedes: A Web Application for Dengue Data Visualization and Case Prediction.

Chunlin Yi1, Aram Vajdi1, Tanvir Ferdousi1

  • 1Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.

Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)
|June 28, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

A new system, PICTUREE-Aedes, integrates global data to forecast dengue fever outbreaks. It assesses risks and predicts incidence, aiding public health efforts against this mosquito-borne disease.

Keywords:
dengue incidence forecastsdengue risk estimationdengue transmissionmosquito population estimationweb application

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Dengue fever is a major global health issue, particularly in tropical/subtropical regions.
  • Existing systems lack integrated global risk assessment and timely incidence forecasting for dengue.
  • Effective surveillance and prediction tools are crucial for managing dengue outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce PICTUREE-Aedes, an integrated application for dengue risk assessment and outbreak forecasting.
  • To demonstrate the application's capability in collecting, analyzing, and simulating dengue-related data.
  • To validate the forecasting accuracy of PICTUREE-Aedes using real-world data.

Main Methods:

  • Developed PICTUREE-Aedes with automated global climate data updates and historical dengue/Aedes mosquito records.
  • Integrated a mosquito population model to estimate mosquito abundance, dengue reproduction number (R0), and risk.
  • Employed multiple forecasting techniques: ensemble Kalman filter, recurrent neural network, particle filter, and super ensemble forecast.

Main Results:

  • PICTUREE-Aedes successfully integrates diverse datasets for comprehensive dengue analysis.
  • The application's risk estimation identifies conditions conducive to dengue outbreaks.
  • Forecasting accuracy was validated using outbreak data from Cambodia, demonstrating predictive capabilities.

Conclusions:

  • PICTUREE-Aedes offers a valuable tool for global dengue risk assessment and incidence forecasting.
  • The integrated system enhances preparedness and response strategies for dengue fever.
  • This application supports public health initiatives in combating mosquito-borne diseases.