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Quantifying reliability and data deficiency in global vertebrate population trends using the Living Planet Index
Shawn Dove1,2, Monika Böhm2,3, Robin Freeman2
1Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
Global Change Biology
|June 28, 2023
Summary
Reliable biodiversity indicators are crucial for conservation, but data gaps hinder accuracy. This study models trend reliability, revealing that data collating and revisiting populations efficiently improve indicator accuracy, especially for underrepresented regions and species.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Data Science
Background:
- Global biodiversity is declining, necessitating effective conservation policies and reliable indicators for decision-making.
- Existing biodiversity indicators, like the Living Planet Index, suffer from incomplete and biased data, limiting their accuracy and reliability.
- Assessing indicator reliability is challenging due to the lack of a 'real-world' benchmark for comparison.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to assess the reliability of biodiversity trend indicators.
- To identify key factors influencing the reliability of biodiversity trend data, moving beyond simple species representation.
- To evaluate strategies for improving the reliability of biodiversity indicators, particularly in data-deficient regions and taxa.
Main Methods:
- Developed a trend reliability model using simulated datasets to represent complete 'real-world' data.
- Utilized degraded sample datasets to mimic real-world indicator data (e.g., Living Planet Database).
- Employed a distance measure to compare trends from partially sampled data against fully sampled data to quantify reliability.
Main Results:
- Indicator reliability is influenced by the number and length of time series, and their growth rate variance, not just species representation.
- Many Living Planet Index trends require more data for reliability, with particular deficiencies in the Global South.
- Bird trends demonstrated higher reliability, while reptile and amphibian trends were most data-deficient.
Conclusions:
- The developed model provides a robust method for assessing biodiversity indicator reliability.
- Collating existing data and revisiting study sites are efficient strategies to enhance indicator reliability.
- Addressing data gaps, especially for underrepresented taxa and regions, is critical for accurate global biodiversity monitoring.
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