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Global future population exposure to heatwaves.

Yuwei Wang1, Na Zhao2, Xiaozhe Yin3

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China.

Environment International
|June 28, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global urban populations face rising heatwave exposure due to climate change and urban expansion. Coastal and low-altitude cities, especially in temperate and tropical zones, are most vulnerable. Policy and planning are crucial for adaptation.

Keywords:
Climate changeHeatwavesPopulation exposureUrbanization

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Urban Planning

Background:

  • Extreme heatwaves in urban areas, driven by climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect, pose significant societal threats.
  • Existing research often oversimplifies human heatwave exposure, neglecting perceived temperature and body comfort, leading to unreliable future projections.
  • Comprehensive, fine-resolution global analyses of future heatwave exposure are lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide the first global, fine-resolution projection of future urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100.
  • To analyze these projections under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), considering urban expansion.
  • To identify key contributing factors and vulnerable regions for targeted policy interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized global, fine-resolution modeling to project urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100.
  • Incorporated four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and accounted for urban expansion.
  • Analyzed contributions of climate effects and urbanization interactions to exposure changes.

Main Results:

  • Global urban population exposure to heatwaves is projected to increase across all four SSPs.
  • Temperate and tropical zones, along with coastal and low-altitude cities, face the greatest exposure.
  • Climate effects are the primary driver (approx. 46.4%), followed by climate-urbanization interactions (approx. 18.5%).

Conclusions:

  • Urgent policy improvements and sustainable development planning are needed for vulnerable coastal and low-altitude cities, particularly in low- and high-income countries.
  • Continued urban expansion significantly impacts future population exposure to heatwaves.
  • Addressing heatwave risks requires integrated strategies considering both climate change and urbanization.