Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 25, 2025
Evaluation of Host-Pathogen Responses and Vaccine Efficacy in Mice
Published on: February 22, 2019
Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932)
Laura W Pomeroy1, Senya Magsi2, Shannon McGill2
1Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Translational Data Analytics Institute, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Abstract:
Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.2. Re varied by city and over time, with periodic high values that could characterize short periods of very high transmission known as superspreading events. Case counts most often peaked in March, with higher-than-average transmission from December through April and showed a correlation with weekly births. While certain city pairs in Midwestern states had synchronous outbreaks, most outbreaks were less synchronous and not driven by distance between cities. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term infectious disease surveillance data and will inform future studies on mumps reemergence and control.
Insights
Historical mumps data reveals that larger cities experienced continuous transmission, while smaller cities had sporadic outbreaks. This analysis provides crucial baseline information for understanding mumps reemergence and control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Public Health Surveillance
Background:
- Mumps is a vaccine-preventable disease that has seen increasing case counts over the past two decades.
- Understanding historical mumps transmission patterns is essential for identifying factors contributing to its reemergence.
- Long-term surveillance data is crucial for effective infectious disease management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantitatively analyze historical mumps dynamics in the United States from 1923-1932.
- To establish a baseline for understanding mumps reemergence.
- To identify factors influencing mumps transmission patterns.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of time-series data of mumps cases reported in 70 U.S. cities between 1923 and 1932.
- Utilized a density-dependent SEIR model to estimate the effective reproductive number (R e).
- Examined relationships between city size, population density, seasonality, and outbreak synchronicity.
Main Results:
- A total of 239,230 mumps cases were reported during the study period.
- Larger cities exhibited annual epidemics, while smaller cities had intermittent outbreaks.
- The critical community size for continuous transmission was estimated between 365,583 and 3,376,438 individuals.
- Mumps cases correlated positively with city size, indicating density-dependent transmission.
- The mean effective reproductive number (R e) was calculated at 1.2, with variations indicating superspreading events.
- Mumps cases peaked in March, with increased transmission from December to April, correlating with weekly births.
Conclusions:
- Historical U.S. mumps data highlights the impact of population density on transmission.
- The study quantifies key epidemiological parameters, including the effective reproductive number.
- Findings underscore the value of long-term surveillance data for informing mumps control and future research on disease reemergence.
Related Concept Videos
01:51Vaccinations
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
00:57Viral Recombination
01:22Development of Immunocompetence
The initial cells that migrate from the fetal thymus settle within the skin and epithelial tissues lining the mouth, digestive tract, and in females, the uterus and vagina. These cells, including skin-based dendritic cells, serve as antigen-presenting cells, playing a key role in T cell activation.
Subsequent T...
01:28History of Microbiology