Depressive symptom trajectories and new-onset arthritis in a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population

Previous studies reported that depression was associated with a high risk of arthritis. However, the effect of different long-term depressive symptom trajectory patterns on the risk of arthritis has not been evaluated. Our study aimed to explore the association between depressive symptom trajectories and the risk of arthritis.

A total of 5583 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018 were included in this analysis. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify depressive symptom trajectories, and a multivariable competitive Cox regression model was used to examine the association of depressive symptom trajectories with arthritis during follow-up.

Five depressive symptom trajectories were identified in our research: stable-high, decreasing, increasing, stable-moderate and stable-low. Compared with participants in the stable-low trajectory group, those in the stable-moderate, increasing, decreasing and stable-high trajectory groups had a higher cumulative risk of arthritis, with HRs (95% CIs) for arthritis of 1.64 (1.30, 2.07), 1.86 (1.30, 2.66), 1.99 (1.41, 2.80) and 2.19 (1.38, 3.48), respectively. Participants with the stable-high symptoms trajectory had the highest cumulative risk of arthritis. There was still a high risk of arthritis, although the depression state was reduced and remained at a level that is generally considered reasonable.

The higher depressive symptoms trajectories were significantly associated with the increased risk of arthritis, and the long-term depressive symptoms trajectories may be a strong predictor of having arthritis.