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A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes
Mohammed Ombadi1,2, Mark D Risser3, Alan M Rhoades3
1Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA. ombadi@lbl.gov.
Nature
|June 28, 2023
Summary
Extreme rainfall events are intensifying faster than expected in Northern Hemisphere high-elevation regions due to warming-induced shifts from snow to rain. This amplified increase highlights vulnerability to floods and requires urgent climate adaptation planning.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Hydrology
- Environmental science
Background:
- Extreme precipitation events pose significant challenges to water sustainability.
- Rainfall extremes are particularly impactful, triggering floods and landslides.
- Previous studies have not differentiated between liquid (rain) and solid (snow) precipitation extremes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the intensification of rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions.
- To determine if precipitation phase (rain vs. snow) influences extreme rainfall projections.
- To understand the role of snow-rain partitioning in climate model uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a climate reanalysis dataset.
- Utilizing future climate model projections.
- Examining changes in snow-rain partitioning.
Main Results:
- Rainfall extremes in Northern Hemisphere high-elevation regions are amplified, increasing by 15% per degree Celsius of warming.
- This amplification is driven by a warming-induced shift from snow to rain.
- Changes in snow-rain partitioning explain a significant portion of intermodel uncertainty in rainfall extreme projections.
Conclusions:
- High-altitude regions are identified as 'hotspots' for extreme rainfall-related hazards.
- Findings necessitate robust climate adaptation plans for vulnerable high-elevation areas.
- The study provides a method to reduce uncertainty in future rainfall extreme projections.
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