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Related Concept Videos

Uncertainty: Overview00:59

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In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error01:10

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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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Depth Perception and Spatial Vision01:15

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Depth perception is the ability to perceive objects three-dimensionally. It relies on two types of cues: binocular and monocular. Binocular cues depend on the combination of images from both eyes and how the eyes work together. Since the eyes are in slightly different positions, each eye captures a slightly different image. This disparity between images, known as binocular disparity, helps the brain interpret depth. When the brain compares these images, it determines the distance to an object.
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Uncertainty in Measurement: Accuracy and Precision03:37

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Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value. 
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 25, 2025

Assessing Pupil-linked Changes in Locus Coeruleus-mediated Arousal Elicited by Trigeminal Stimulation
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Pupil Size Encodes Uncertainty during Exploration.

Haoxue Fan1, Taylor Burke1, Deshawn Chatman Sambrano1

  • 1Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.

Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience
|June 29, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Pupil size reflects uncertainty during decision-making, guiding exploration strategies. This research links pupil-linked arousal to how people explore options for maximizing rewards.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Neuroscience
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Exploration is vital for decision-making and long-term reward maximization.
  • Previous research indicates uncertainty influences exploration strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate the role of the pupil-linked arousal system in uncertainty-guided exploration.
  • Examine how pupil dilation relates to different exploration strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Measured pupil dilation in 48 participants during a two-armed bandit task.
  • Analyzed exploration strategies in relation to relative uncertainty, total uncertainty, and value difference.

Main Results:

  • Observed a hybrid exploration strategy sensitive to various uncertainty measures.
  • Found a positive correlation between pupil size and total uncertainty.
  • Demonstrated that pupil-derived uncertainty estimates improve choice predictions.

Conclusions:

  • Pupil size encodes uncertainty estimates used in exploration decisions.
  • Results support the role of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system in uncertainty-guided exploration.