The incompatibility between industrial restructuring and low-carbon economy: a comprehensive analysis

Numerous studies have demonstrated that the development of low-carbon economy and industrial restructuring cannot occur in a coordinated manner. However, academic literature does not provide further explanations for this phenomenon. In this paper, we introduce a novel decomposition method to reassess the relationship between industrial restructuring and low-carbon economy, which yields similar findings. Next, we construct a straightforward theoretical model to investigate two fundamental reasons that interrelate with this issue: excessively high proportion of secondary sector and excessive carbon intensity of tertiary sector. Finally, we implement a rigorous causal identification using three-dimensional panel data at the provincial, industrial, and yearly levels by undergoing multiple robustness tests and mitigating endogeneity issues. Our heterogeneity tests suggest that the impact of industrial restructuring is greater in high-polluting industries, the Eastern region, and non-digital pilot regions. Overall, our theoretical and empirical analysis serves as a vital reference for other developing and developed countries to attain harmonious development between low-carbon economy and industrial restructuring.