Patient and provider factors predict non-surgical management for complex upper gastrointestinal cancers

Surgery is the only potentially curative treatment for non-metastatic upper gastrointestinal cancers. We analyzed patient and provider characteristics associated with non-surgical management.

We queried the National Cancer Database for patients with upper gastrointestinal cancers from 2004 to 2018 who underwent surgery, refused surgery, or for whom surgery was contraindicated. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with surgery being refused or contraindicated, and Kaplan-Meier curves assessed survival.

We identified 249,813 patients based on our selection criteria-86.3% had surgery, 2.4% refused, and for 11.3%, surgery was contraindicated. Median overall survival was 48.2 months for patients who underwent surgery versus 16.3 and 9.4 months for the refusal and contraindicated groups. Medical and non-medical factors predicted both surgery refusals and contraindications, such as increasing age (odds ratio = 1.07 and 1.03, respectively, P < .001), Black race (odds ratio = 1.72 and 1.45, P < .001), comorbidities (Charlson-Deyo score 2+, odds ratio = 1.18 and 1.66, P < .001), low socioeconomic status (odds ratio = 1.70 and 1.40, P < .001), no health insurance (odds ratio = 3.26 and 2.34, P < .001), community cancer programs (odds ratio = 1.43 and 1.40, P < .001), low volume facilities (odds ratio = 1.82 and 1.52, P < .001), and stage 3 disease (odds ratio = 1.51 and 6.50, P < .001). On subset analysis (excluding patients age >70, Charlson-Deyo score 2+, and stage 3 cancer), non-medical predictors of both outcomes were similar.

Refusal of and medical contraindications for surgery profoundly impact overall survival. The same factors (ie, race, socioeconomic status, hospital volume, and hospital type) predict these outcomes. These findings suggest variation and potential bias that may exist between physicians and patients discussing cancer surgery.