Forecasting the effects of municipal solid plastic waste generation and streaming using system dynamics: A case study...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Engineering
• Operations Research
• Sustainability Science

Background:

• Municipal solid plastic waste (MSPW) management necessitates integrating diverse policies and technologies.
• Decision-makers face challenges in balancing economic and environmental objectives for MSPW.
• Flow-controlling variables, such as source separation and incineration rates, mediate policy/technology inputs and system outputs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a system dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the impact of mediating variables on MSPW management outcomes.
• To identify optimal levels for mediating variables to achieve desired economic and environmental outputs.
• To guide policy and technology selection at critical stages of the MSPW system.

Main Methods:

• Development of a system dynamics (SD) model simulating MSPW flows and externalities.
• Analysis of mediating variables (e.g., source-separated and incinerated MSPW percentages).
• Application of the SD model to Dubai's MSPW problem, including sensitivity and full factorial analyses.

Main Results:

• Sensitivity analysis indicates prioritizing waste reduction, followed by source separation, then incineration with energy recovery, yields superior results.
• Recycling demonstrates a greater impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy reduction compared to incineration with energy recovery.
• Early interventions in the MSPW management chain are more effective in achieving sustainability goals.

Conclusions:

• The SD model provides a framework for optimizing MSPW management by linking mediating variables to desired outcomes.
• Strategic implementation of policies and technologies at earlier stages of waste management is crucial for maximizing benefits.
• The study highlights the significant environmental benefits of recycling for GHG and energy savings, though these are global in nature.