Incorporating causal inference perspectives into psychoneuroimmunology: A simulation study highlighting concerns...

Psychoneuroimmunology and immunopsychiatry are quickly approaching a critical point where the clinical translatability of their evidence base will be tested. To maximize chances for translational success, we believe researchers must adopt causal inference techniques that augment the causal relevance of estimates given theorized causal structures. To illustrate the utility of incorporating causal inference perspectives into psychoneuroimmunology, we applied directed acyclic graphs and a combination of empirical and simulated data to demonstrate the consequences of controlling for adiposity when testing the association between inflammation and depression under the plausible causal structure of increases in adipose tissue leading to greater inflammation that in turn promotes depression. Effect size estimates were pulled from a dataset combining the Midlife in the United States 2 (MIDUS-2) and MIDUS Refresher datasets. Data were extracted and used to simulate data reflecting an adiposity → inflammation → depression causal structure. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation study with 1,000 iterations and three sample size scenarios (Ns = 100, 250, and 500) was conducted testing whether controlling for adiposity when estimating the relation between inflammation and depression influenced the precision of this estimate. Across all simulation scenarios, controlling for adiposity reduced precision of the inflammation → depression estimate, suggesting that researchers primarily interested in quantifying inflammation → depression associations should not control for adiposity. This work thus underscores the importance of incorporating causal inference approaches into psychoneuroimmunological research.