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Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics
Andrew Bo Liu1,2, Daniel Lee2,3, Amogh Prabhav Jalihal1
1Department of Systems Biology, Harvard Medical School; Boston, MA, USA.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|July 3, 2023
Summary
New surveillance systems could help detect future pandemics earlier. However, modeling suggests these systems would not have significantly altered the course of COVID-19.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Pandemic preparedness necessitates early detection of novel pathogens.
- Proposed surveillance systems include hospital, wastewater, and air travel monitoring.
- The potential benefit of these systems requires quantitative evaluation.
Approach:
- Developed and validated a quantitative model simulating disease spread and detection.
- The model assesses various pathogens and detection system scenarios.
- Empirical data and mathematical characterization were used.
Key Points:
- Hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier (2,300 cases vs. 3,400).
- Wastewater monitoring offers benefits for smaller populations and diseases with long incubation periods (e.g., polio, HIV/AIDS).
- Air travel monitoring showed limited benefit in most evaluated scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Early detection systems show potential for mitigating some future pandemics.
- These systems might not have substantially changed the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The effectiveness of surveillance strategies is disease and context-specific.
