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Related Concept Videos

Confidence Intervals01:21

Confidence Intervals

6.6K
An unbiased point estimate is often insufficient to predict a population estimate, such as population mean or population proportion. In this scenario, a confidence interval is used. A confidence interval is an estimate similar to a  sample proportion. However, unlike the point estimate which is a single value, the confidence interval  contains a range of values. These values have lower and upper limits, known as confidence limits, and can be designated as L1 and L2, respectively.
A...
6.6K
Interpretation of Confidence Intervals01:19

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

6.1K
A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
Confidence intervals have confidence coefficients that are crucial for their interpretation. The most common confidence coefficients are 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99, which can be written as percentages–90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively.
Suppose a person calculates a confidence interval with a confidence coefficient of 0.95. In that case, they can...
6.1K
Confidence Interval for Estimating Population Mean01:25

Confidence Interval for Estimating Population Mean

7.7K
A point estimate of the population mean is obtained from a single sample. Such a point estimate does not represent a population well because it needs to account for variability in the population. Single point estimate can also be biased despite the sample being selected randomly. Thus, a point estimate is often unreliable. A confidence interval is needed to reduce this unreliability.
A confidence interval for the mean is a range of values that provides an estimate of the population mean. As the...
7.7K
Confidence Coefficient01:24

Confidence Coefficient

7.7K
The confidence coefficient is also known as the confidence level or degree of confidence. It is the percent expression for the probability, 1-α, that the confidence interval contains the true population parameter assuming that the confidence interval is obtained after sufficient unbiased sampling; for example, if the CL = 90%, then in 90 out of 100 samples the interval estimate will enclose the true population parameter. Here α is the area under the curve, distributed equally under...
7.7K
Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

4.1K
The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
4.1K
Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation01:22

Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation

8.2K
In practice, we rarely know the population standard deviation. In the past, when the sample size was large, this did not present a problem to statisticians. They used the sample standard deviation s as an estimate for σ and proceeded as before to calculate a confidence interval with close enough results. However, statisticians ran into problems when the sample size was small. A small sample size caused inaccuracies in the confidence interval.
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the...
8.2K

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Updated: Jul 24, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Towards More Reliable Confidence Estimation.

Haoxuan Qu, Lin Geng Foo, Yanchao Li

    IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence
    |July 3, 2023
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    This study introduces a novel meta-learning framework to enhance model confidence estimation. The approach improves trustworthiness by addressing label imbalance and out-of-distribution data for safer deep model deployment.

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    Area of Science:

    • Artificial Intelligence
    • Machine Learning
    • Deep Learning

    Background:

    • Confidence estimation is crucial for trustworthy AI deployment.
    • Existing methods struggle with label imbalance and out-of-distribution data.
    • Deep models require reliable confidence metrics for safe application.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose a meta-learning framework for improved confidence estimation.
    • To enhance model trustworthiness by addressing key limitations.
    • To generalize confidence estimation across diverse data distributions.

    Main Methods:

    • A meta-learning framework using virtual training/testing sets with distribution shifts.
    • A virtual training and testing scheme to foster distributional generalization.
    • Incorporation of a modified meta-optimization rule for flat meta-minima convergence.

    Main Results:

    • The framework simultaneously improves performance under label imbalance and with out-of-distribution data.
    • Demonstrated effectiveness across monocular depth estimation, image classification, and semantic segmentation tasks.
    • Achieved more reliable confidence estimation for deep learning models.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed meta-learning framework offers a robust solution for confidence estimation.
    • It enhances the trustworthiness and safety of deep models in real-world deployments.
    • The method generalizes well to various tasks and data distribution challenges.