[Nomogram-Based Prediction of Risk of Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma]

Objective To establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of cervical lymph node metastasis in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). Methods The patients with complete clinical data of DTC and cervical lymph node ultrasound and diagnosed based on pathological evidence from January 2019 to December 2021 were assigned into a training group (n=444) and a validation group (n=125).Lasso regression was performed to screen the data with differences between groups,and multivariate Logistic regression to establish a prediction model with the factors screened out by Lasso regression.C-index and calibration chart were employed to evaluate the prediction performance of the established model. Results The predictive factors for establishing the model were lymph node short diameter≥0.5 cm,long-to-short-axis ratio<2,disappearance of lymph node hilum,cystic transformation,hyperechogenicity,calcification,and abnormal blood flow (all P<0.001).The established model demonstrated a good discriminative ability,with the C index of 0.938 (95%CI=0.926-0.961) in the training group. Conclusion The nomogram established based on the ultrasound image features of cervical lymph nodes in DTC can accurately predict the risk of cervical lymph node metastasis in DTC.