Application of the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator as a tool for retrospective analysis

The Web-based One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator developed by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) applies large-scale registry data to generate individualized estimates of overall survival (OS) probability 1 year after first allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) and can therefore provide a data-driven foundation for personalized patient counseling. We assessed the calibration of the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator when applied to retrospective data among adult recipients of first allogeneic HCT for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) from a 7/8- or 8/8-matched donor from 2000 through 2015 at a single center. Predicted 1 year OS was estimated for each patient using the CIBMTR Calculator. Corresponding observed 1 year OS was estimated for each group by the Kaplan-Meier method. A weighted Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to visually display the average of observed 1 year survival estimates over the continuous range of predicted OS. In the first analysis of its kind, we demonstrated that the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator could be applied to larger patient cohorts and predicted 1 year prognosis with general agreement between predicted and observed survival.